Australia's NOM Figure: Separating Fact from Political Noise Before You Apply
News · 2026-08-26 · 5 min read
Anyone serious about relocating to Australia, whether as a student, a skilled worker or a working holiday-maker, should get familiar with one term before spending money on applications: NOM. The letters stand for Net Overseas Migration. Every Australian political party now leans on this number in its arguments, yet few of them describe it the same way. If you understand what it really counts, you will be better placed to judge visa policy changes on their merits and ignore the hype.
The figure everyone is fighting over
According to the most recent figures, NOM stood at roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025. Compare that with the post-pandemic peak of around 556,000 in 2023 and you can see a sharp fall. Still, the result remains well ahead of the government's own forward projections. Treasury has forecast a decline to 225,000 by the 2027–28 financial year, but in recent years its estimates have repeatedly come in under the real outcome. That gap explains much of the political heat: it is easy to promise a number and much harder to deliver it when a large share of movement involves returning citizens and New Zealanders, not visa holders.
How Australia actually counts a migrant
Strip away the speeches and the definition is straightforward. NOM equals the people who arrive in Australia and stay for at least a year, minus the people who depart to settle somewhere else.
The counting method is called the 12/16-month rule. Nobody needs an unbroken stay of 12 months. A person is added to NOM if they spend 12 months in Australia within any 16-month window, even if those months are spread across separate visits. So if a student goes home for a month and then returns, they are still included once their combined time in the country reaches the threshold.
Note also what the figure covers. NOM is not limited to foreign nationals. It takes in Australian citizens and permanent residents who return, and New Zealanders who relocate across the Tasman. Both groups move largely without visas, so government cannot easily control them with visa settings. Diplomats and their families are left out completely. Workers on short placements under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, which recruits agricultural labourers from the Pacific for periods as brief as a few months, may or may not be counted; the length of the placement decides it.
Arrivals by category, 2024–25
The total tells you less than the breakdown. Here is how arrivals contributing to NOM split in the 2024–25 financial year:
| Group | Approximate arrivals |
|---|---|
| International students (mostly in higher education) | 157,000 |
| Skilled visa holders, permanent and temporary combined | 86,000 |
| Working holiday-makers | 78,000 |
| Australian citizens returning home | 64,000 |
| New Zealand citizens | 53,000 |
| Family reunion visas | 24,000 |
| Humanitarian visas | just under 15,000 |
Students were the single largest contributor. Returning Australians and New Zealand citizens, meanwhile, fall almost entirely outside what visa policy can control.
Party pledges, side by side
Every major party says it will cut NOM. How clearly each one explains its plan is another matter.
Labor has practically taken Treasury's projection of 225,000 by 2028 as its working goal. Its focus is enforcement rather than wide visa cuts: ensuring temporary visa holders depart when their visas run out, and slowing the processing of working holiday and skilled visa applications for now.
The Coalition has not committed to a set figure. It ties any future cap to how quickly housing is built, with indications that it could fall somewhere below 200,000. One senator put forward 180,000, aimed at working holiday, student and select skilled visas, but other party figures were quick to distance themselves, largely because so many regional and rural employers need working holiday-makers for seasonal labour.
One Nation has publicly committed to a target of 130,000, although its messaging has wavered. A newer MP said the party's "real" number could be closer to Treasury's 225,000 forecast once PALM workers and aged care nurses were included again. Senior figures then withdrew those remarks and restated 130,000 as the party line. Graduate visas, international student numbers and a tighter skilled migration list are the categories it has marked for cuts.
Practical steps for serious applicants
The NOM headline is not the part that should shape your plans. Pay attention instead to which visa categories are being singled out. Student visas, graduate visas, working holiday visas and parts of the skilled visa list are all under active political scrutiny, so processing times, eligibility criteria and annual caps in these streams are more likely to move in the near term than family reunion or humanitarian intake. Because real migration numbers have often strayed far from government projections, read any announced "target" as a direction, not a guarantee.
A final word of caution. Times of policy change can attract people who promise quick visas or "guaranteed" places. A genuine employer will never ask you to pay for a job offer. Check every claim against official policy detail as it is released, and do not make decisions based on political rhetoric or pressure from anyone asking for money.
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