Australia's Intergenerational Report: The Straight Facts on Why Migration Drives Its Future
News · 2026-09-28 · 4 min read
Before you spend money or time on any Australian migration plan, understand the big picture first. Once in three years, Australia's government publishes a forecast looking 40 years down the road. The newest one, the Intergenerational Report (IGR), is clear on a key point: Australia's growth will depend to a large extent on people coming in from overseas.
Key Figures at a Glance
| Measure | What the IGR says |
|---|---|
| Fertility rate | Projected to fall to 1.34 births per woman by 2065–66 (the report before this one assumed 1.62) |
| Population | Expected to reach 39.3 million by 2065–66 |
| Net overseas migration | Assumed long-term average of 235,000 people a year |
| Median age of recent migrants | Around 26, against 38 for existing residents |
| Economic growth | Easing from about 3% a year to about 2% |
| Real per capita income | Up 55% |
| Life expectancy | 89.5 years for women, 86.1 for men |
Deaths Will Soon Outpace Births
Australian families are shrinking. In the 2060s, deaths are expected to overtake births for the first time. So how does the population still grow? Through net overseas migration. The report says this gives Australia "demographic resilience", unlike Germany, Italy and South Korea, where deaths are already ahead of births.
Age is the other part of the story. Because new arrivals are much younger than the people already living there, the working-age population (15 to 64) is projected to keep rising, while many similar economies will see theirs decline. The broader ageing pressure is still real:
- Median age moving from 38.6 to 45 by 2062–63
- Close to double the number of people aged 65+
- Close to triple the number aged 85+
An older society needs more health and aged care workers. Somebody has to do those jobs.
Sectors the Report Points To
- Care work: nurses, aged care workers, allied health professionals and disability support staff, driven by ageing.
- Energy: Australia has a 2050 net zero target and aims to be a "renewable energy superpower" through critical minerals, green hydrogen and green metals. Engineers, technicians, trades and project specialists are part of that picture.
- Artificial intelligence: the report says its outcomes are not certain yet, but AI will reshape how tasks get done and which skills carry the most value.
- Services: the economy is expected to lean further toward services, rewarding professional, technical and people-facing skills.
A Stable Economy, With Real Pressures
Ageing is the main reason growth is expected to slow. Even so, the report projects the economy will be more than double its current size by 2065–66. That points to a wealthy, stable country with a strong public health system and long lives. The report does not hide the problems: younger people face housing affordability issues, and government spending keeps climbing.
Don't Treat 235,000 as a Promise
Be clear on this: the migration figure is an assumption, nothing more. The Opposition and One Nation have both said they would push for much lower migration levels if elected. Visa categories, settings and priorities can change with each government and budget.
Occupation lists and rules shift, so your plan should rest on current information and a carefully prepared application. Timing matters.
Your Action Checklist
- Match your skills to long-term need. Skills wanted today may not be wanted tomorrow. Look at care, energy and technology, where the report sees lasting demand.
- Verify current visa rules. Policy can move. Don't rely on what applied in the past.
- Start now. English tests, skills assessments and documents all take time.
One last word: confirm any visa information through official sources, and be wary of anyone who promises a guaranteed visa or asks you to pay for a job offer. Good preparation, not shortcuts, is what protects your plans.
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